Feds raid Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's apartment one week after platform correctly predicted Trump's victory

 November 14, 2024

The FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan a week after the betting platform predicted the runaway win for President-elect Donald Trump, the New York Post reported. Law enforcement recovered a cellphone and other electronic devices from the 26-year-old's Manhattan apartment. 

Agents descended on Coplan's home around 6 a.m. Wednesday, demanding he turn over the devices. According to the Post's exclusive report, a source called this raid "grand political theater at its worst" and similar to what made Trump furious when they did it to him.

"They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons," the source added.

There's no word on what the feds were after, but the source believes it had to do with the correct call on Trump's easy win against Vice President Kamala Harris. "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," the person told the Post.

Political Targeting

Polymarket correctly called the presidential race early on Election Day. The events-based trading platform had Trump's odds at 58.6% compared to Harris' at just 41.4%.

This was a departure from the dead heat the rest of the pollsters were predicting heading into Nov. 5, and the feds may suspect market manipulation or election interference. However, the company insists that everything about its forecasting is above board.

"Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections," a representative for the company said. "We charge no fees, take no trading positions, and allow observers from around the world to analyze all market data as a public good," the spokesperson added.

Notably, Polymarket received a cash injection of $70 million from Trump friend Peter Thiel.  There are also photographs of Coplan and Donald Trump Jr., which could hint at a possible friendship between the two.

It's possible that given this political climate, people who are friendly with the Trump family automatically have targets on their backs. After all, the FBI raided Trump's private home in August 2022 over allegedly mishandled classified documents while he was already cooperating with the feds, and this could be a similar operation against Coplan.

Legal Woes

Coplan admonished President Joe Biden's administration for the raid. "It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents," Coplan posted to X, formerly Twitter, Thursday.

"We are deeply committed to being non-partisan, and today is no different, but the incumbents should do some self-reflecting and recognize that taking a more pro-business, pro-startup approach may be what would have changed their fate this election. Polymarket has provided value to 10's of millions of people this election cycle, while causing harm to nobody. We're deeply proud of that," he added.

In 2022, Polymarket stopped doing business in the U.S. after the company was fined $1.4 million for failing to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Coplan announced just a week before the raid that the company would return to trading stateside, though some were able to continue using the platform with a VPN.

It's unclear what the raid was about, but it wouldn't be the first time Biden's administration went after a political opponent if Coplan is right. Hopefully, Trump's recent election will prevent lawfare in the future.

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