With just days to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election, the world is watching and waiting with great anticipation, knowing that the eventual winner could reshape America's approach to global affairs.
As the Washington Post explains, government officials across Europe are carefully monitoring the trajectory of the race, declaring their preparedness in the event of a victory for former President Donald Trump.
With Trump having already served four years in the Oval Office, European leaders have suggested that they already have a general sense of what to expect should he secure another term.
According to the Post, policymakers abroad “know the diplomatic dance required, and they are crafting various contingency plans on security and trade.”
Even so, the outlet adds, many on the continent and elsewhere remain worried about Trump's positions on NATO, the potential imposition of stiff tariffs, and a potential American withdrawal from the Paris climate accords.
Adding to the concerns of some in Europe, is a marked lack of cohesiveness and stability among leaders of several key countries, a contrast to Trump's first term, when then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel held sway.
A politically weak Emmanuel Macron in France, the coalition fractures experienced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the swift decline in domestic popularity suffered by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are all factors that could hinder a unified approach to a Trump presidency, the Post says.
While much of the discussion in Europe has centered on a potential Trump return, the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency has also triggered notable uncertainty among some officials.
Though Harris has characterized NATO and American obligations to it as “ironclad,” some European leaders have their doubts, speculating that her potential administration would turn more of its focus toward Asia.
Notable to many, according to the Post, is the fact that Harris' national security advisor, while voicing support for ongoing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, has also called for a “more realistic” relationship between the U.S and its European allies.
The bottom line, according to Michael Stempfle of the German Defense Ministry, is that leaders are “not sitting here like a rabbit caught in headlights” and that preparations are underway for whichever presidential candidate prevails next week.
Increasingly, however, it appears that many are anticipating a Trump win, with European Union officials working on potential retaliatory tariff actions, negotiation approaches, and offers to increase American imports during his tenure.
Perhaps most anxious about the American election outcome, however, are the leaders of Ukraine, who have relied on the Biden administration's seemingly unending willingness to write checks in support of the continued conflict with Russia, particularly given Trump's emphasis on ending the war swiftly through negotiated settlement, as the Guardian reports.
A senior government official inside the Ukrainian government said, “We are worried about Trump,” and given that President Volodymyr Zelensky sat for a meeting with the former president in late September – well in advance of the election – it appears that he, too, is anticipating an imminent need for some adjustment in his relationship with the United States.
