After lifting the spirits of liberals this summer, Kamala Harris may be setting Democrats up for heartbreak this fall as Donald Trump wipes her polling advantage.
Since September, Harris has lost a five-point advantage in NBC's poll, a sobering warning for Democrats. Trump and Harris are now tied at 48% each, according to the latest survey.
In NBC's September survey, Trump trailed Harris 44%-49%.
The shift is driven by a more "favorable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president" and declining favorability for Harris, who enjoyed a surge in approval over the summer.
“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
Harris launched her campaign in July to fawning coverage from the liberal press, and her approval rating surged. In the latest NBC poll, though, Harris' favorability is underwater by 6 points, while Trump is underwater by a similar 8 points, which is also his highest rating since leaving office.
Meanwhile, 48% said they approve of Trump's job performance as president, a historic high for Trump in NBC's poll. 44% say Trump's policies helped them, compared to 31% who said Trump's agenda hurt them.
By contrast, 25% say Joe Biden's policies helped them, while 45% said they hurt.
Harris has tried to distance herself from Biden's record, but she has had some difficulty convincing voters that she represents a change.
During a recent interview on The View, she admitted that she would not have done anything differently if she were the president.
At the end of the day, the race may come down to which party motivates their base better - and the two candidates are drawing from very different demographics.
The NBC poll reinforces a pronounced gender gap, with women backing Harris by 14 points (55%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 16-points (56%-40%).
Harris' female-centric campaign has focused heavily on abortion, which is the top issue for 22% of voters. But a slightly smaller percentage, 19%, rate Trump's signature issue of border security as their biggest concern.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 8 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationally. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
While Trump is catching Harris in the national polls, the race is similarly close in the key battlegrounds.
Ultimately, neither candidate can afford to be complacent, but Democrats can't be thrilled that their candidate is the one losing steam weeks before Election Day.
