Democrats are reportedly getting flashbacks to Hillary Clinton's loss in Michigan as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump remain neck-and-neck in the polls and Harris continues to flounder.
Michigan Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond told the Associated Press that, "Smart Democrats have a healthy sense of paranoia. If polling is as far off as it was in 2016, we’re cooked."
Going into November 2016, Democrats were certain that the election was a slam dunk and that Clinton was going to win by such a large margin that it would end the GOP.
However, the polls were inaccurate and Democrats had been blind to the signs that Clinton was actually going to lose in historic fashion. Now Democrats seem to have PTSD especially as polls are showing Trump and Harris within the margin of error from each other.
Michigan in particular is an X-factor thanks to a large population of Arab voters who could end up staying home in November due to Harris's support of Israel. Should that happen, Trump will likely win Michigan handily virtually ensuring victory in November.
In some ways, Harris is shaping up to be Clinton 2.0 with her many mistakes and personal failings that are dragging her campaign down despite the efforts of the media machine.
A new poll from the New York Times and Siena College found Harris is leading with 48% support in Michigan and Trump is right behind her at 47%. Considering that polls have failed to accurately chart Trump's support, this is a major cause of worry for Democrats.
A 1% difference is effectively a tie and in Trump's case, it could mean he's actually leading Harris. These polls also fail to account for the possibility that the Arab vote, which traditionally supports Democrats, could abstain from this election.
Michigan and Minnesota have large concentrations of Arab voters who wield enough electoral power to swing the state one way or another and without those voters, Harris should expect to lose Michigan with Minnesota being contested but likely still safe.
Talks of staying home in November have been circulating among Arab communities in response to Joe Biden's support of Israel and Harris has done little to indicate she will do things differently.
Things have gotten so bad that elements within the Arab community are actually swinging towards Trump in hopes that he will do more to achieve peace in the Middle East.
Trump recently met with the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, which is the only Muslim-majority city in America, and got his endorsement and by extension the support of the Muslim community in Hamtramck which could be a game-changer in Michigan.
Currently, Trump holds the support of 18% of Michigan's Muslim voters which is a significant jump over Harris who can only boast 12% support. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has swooped in to score the most support among Michigan's Muslim voters with 40% support thanks to her attacks on Israel.
Trump could shock Democrats in Michigan again only this time coasting to victory with the support of Muslims who want Trump to bring an end to the war between Israel and Gaza.
