JERUSALEM – It is now more than 10 days since the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound in Tehran, and the promised Iranian retaliation has still yet to materialize.
Part of this is a deliberate Iranian strategy. Their intention is to create doubt – even complacency – in both the minds of Israeli decision-makers and the wider populace; the latter of which has lived in a state of tension due to the seemingly imminent threat of Iranian reprisals in response to the abject failure of their security services and the attendant humiliation for Haniyeh's elimination.
It is possible it also wants to provoke Israeli miscalculation. There have been growing calls within Israel's political establishment that it should consider at least one, and possibly two, pre-emptive strikes – one against Hezbollah and the other directly on Iran itself.
The rationale for this line of Israeli thinking is when an enemy – which has proven it is prepared to strike directly at your civilian population centers – think the unprecedented ballistic missile and drone attack of April 13/14, which miraculously caused no loss of life – and threatens to do it again, then they should be believed.
Iran has continued to ratchet up the pressure through a series of carefully cultivated leaks of information to the world's media over the last few days. One of the first was a report about the appearance of Russian-made aircraft batteries in Tehran as long as a week ago. Such a delivery is usually accompanied by Russian military personnel, although on this occasion it was not clear whether they were also in the Iranian capital.
Reports also surfaced late last week about a NOTAM, or notice to airmen, to avoid airspace over Tehran; this was updated Sunday to advise the airspace would be closed from Aug. 11 until Aug. 14. It should be noted that prior to the April attack on Israel, a similar order was given, because the airspace was reserved for missile launchers. This would suggest at least an Iranian attack could begin on Wednesday. Some have suggested an attack would start on the most solemn day of the Jewish Calendar – the Ninth of Av – which this year falls on Tuesday – the day when the Jewish people the world over mourn calamities, which have befallen them over the centuries.
It is also highly likely Hezbollah – which started firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel on Oct. 8 – will also seek retribution for the killing of senior leader Fuad Shukr. Whether it will go it alone or be the tip of the Iranian retaliatory spear remains to be seen. If Tehran does order a coordinated attack – it is thought the threat will last "three or four days" and will include its Shiite proxy in Lebanon – effectively another arm of the IRGC – as well as the Houthi in Yemen and other proxies in Iraq and Syria.
"Iran's aerial operations against Israel could last three to four days," said Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, Iran International reported on Saturday night, citing an interview published by 'Iran Watch.' Ardestani also claimed Iran would be prepared for the consequences of such an attack, and would be ready for any subsequent developments.
It is unclear how much damage Israel is willing to absorb in the event Iran and/or its proxies attack the Jewish state. It is worth noting what appeared to be a muted response to Iran's hyper-aggressive attack in April; in response to the hundreds of projectiles fired at it, some days later Israel responded with taking out a radar station utilizing a weapon the Iranians had no knowledge of and no way to counter. Iran – both directly and via its proxies has not wavered from its ambition to annihilate the Jewish state and everyone – not just the Jews – within it. Israel has attempted to modulate its replies with coded warnings about its capabilities – both military and intelligence.
F-22 Raptors
The situation is still very tense – although Israelis are largely going about their daily routines as much as possible – and the potential for miscalculation on both the Israeli and Iranian side are great. For its part, the United States, worried about a possible escalation leading to regional war – which would obviously be catastrophic for the people of the Middle East – would likely to be disastrous for America's lame duck President Joe Biden and the Democrat's chances of getting Vice President Kamala Harris elected.
It is the one thing they have been assiduously trying to avoid – and yet by projecting weakness, indecision, and distraction – it might be the very thing they end up getting. Still, there are two U.S. aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean and a squadron of F-22 Raptors on standby.
For his part, Biden, from whom we have heard precious little in the intervening weeks since his defenestration as the Democratic Party's nominee for the presidential election, reiterated his one-word warning to Iran over the weekend. On being asked by reporters if he had a message for Iran, Biden almost inaudibly said, "Don't."
If the last 10 months or so have shown us anything it is that both Israel, Iran and its proxies are not overly deterred by the soon-to-be-former president's words. It should be remembered his "Don't" in October was also a warning to Israel to not go down the path of attacking Hezbollah, as some in the defense establishment, including Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thought about doing.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the "Al-Taba'een" school complex in Gaza City, which it said served as a Hamas military headquarters, and in which it used three small missiles to eliminate some 19 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) operatives. Almost immediately, Hamas counter-claimed, alleging the strike killed some 90-100 people – the majority non-combatants.
On Sunday, the IDF in tandem with the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) released the names and photos of the terrorists it said were holed up at the school. The global reaction to this incident has been similar to other incidents – most infamously the Al-Ahli hospital "strike" which the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry within minutes of its taking place reported some 500 people having been killed. Again the Hamas-run "civil defense agency" claimed "more than 90 killed," while Egypt and Qatar registered their consternation at the supposed loss of life.
The White House said it was "deeply concerned" about the airstrike and was seeking further details. It said far too many civilians continue to be killed in the Gaza war. A subsequent National Security Council spokesperson acknowledged the obvious fact about Hamas using schools to operate command centers from, but again stressed Israel's need to take measures to "minimize civilian harm."
"Yet again, far too many civilians have been killed," Kamala Harris told reporters separately on Saturday while also reiterating calls for a Gaza ceasefire. Further condemnation of Israel flowed from Turkey, which accused Israel of "another crime against humanity," U.N. special rapporteur Francesca Albanese – who has a long and ignominious history of rank anti-Semitism said Israel was "genociding [sic] the Palestinians, and both U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy and French President Emanuel Macron denounced the attack, also calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The IDF was very precise in its explanation about using "three small munitions" to carry out the strike – the implication being it was enough to carry out the limited attack it had planned. It argued the ordnance used could create neither the physical nor human destruction it is alleged to have caused.
